When Will Tigers Star Miguel Cabrera Reach Top 25 On All-Time HR List?

When Will Tigers Star Miguel Cabrera Reach Top 25 On All-Time HR List?
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

He’s almost 40 years old and Detroit Tiger Miguel Cabrera is in his 21st year in Major League Baseball. Over his Hall of Fame caliber career, he has had 10 seasons in which he hit over .300 (including a high of .344 in 2011), six seasons in which he hit 40 or more doubles, 12 seasons with 100 or more RBIs (including 11 in a row from 2004 through 2014) and 10 seasons with 30 or more home runs.

But that was then. And smart Michigan sports betting customers won't let sentiment get in the way of a good wager.

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Where Miggy Is In 2023

Going into Wednesday’s games, Cabrera sits at 507 HRs, just four from tying former New York Giant Mel Ott, who hit 511 between 1926 and 1947. Passing Ott would put Cabrera 25th all-time on the home run list and then he’d need only one more to tie Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews, at 512, and move into a tie for 23rd. 

So, when might Cabrera hit his fourth homer this season? And should bettors at Michigan sportsbook apps be on watch?

Well, first he has to hit his first homer of 2023. Through the Tigers’ opening 10 games, Cabrera has played in six and gone 4-for-21 (.190) with two doubles and two RBIs. While there were seasons where Cabrera hit home runs every 15 plate appearances, last year that number fell to one home run every 86.6 plate appearances. At that pace, he may not hit four home runs all season.

If you take a more optimistic approach – that last season Cabrera hit a home run every 22 games – that would mean the Tigers have about 90 games to go for him to hit four more. That would take him into July. And Cabrera has already announced that this will be his final season as a player.

Cabrera’s HR Pace Slow in 2022

Looking at last season, Cabrera hit his first home run on May 1 against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. His second blast came May 13 at home against the Orioles. No. 3 came two days later against the Orioles. Cabrera then went from May 16 to July 25 before hitting his fourth home run against the Padres. Then it was a break until Sept. 28, when he hit his fifth and final homer of the 2022 season against the Royals. Four of his five homers last year came at home.

Taking the glass half empty approach, Cabrera has hit only two dingers in close to his last 90 games and had a two-week stretch last summer where he was around .100 for his batting average. No matter how much the Tigers franchise would like to give its fans something – anything – to cheer about, at some point, without a hot streak to buoy hopes, the team will have to stop playing the aging superstar.

And whichever way this chase goes, BetMichigan has the Michigan sports betting promos you’ll want to take advantage of before you place a wager.

Hypothetical Odds of When Cabrera Will Reach Top 25 in HRs

Series % Chance Odds
vs. Rangers (May 29-31) 7.3%+1270
@ White Sox (June 2-4)9.3%+975
@ Phillies (June 5-7)18.7%+435
vs. Diamondbacks (June 9-11)21.3%+370
vs. Braves (June 12-14)19.6%+410
@ Twins (June 15-18)14.5%+590
vs. Royals (June 19-21)9.3%+975

Miggy’s Goal Might Take A While

We’ve made a hypothetical odds chart on when Miggy might get jiggy and hit his fourth home run of the season. But if we’re being realistic about an over/under possibility, recent performance says to take the under.

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Methodology: Using Baseball-Reference.com, BetMichigan.com looked at Miguel Cabrera’s current rate of hitting home runs (which over the past year has been a HR every 22.4 games) as he is just four homers from entering the Top 25 all-time. After figuring this out, we created hypothetical odds for which series the Tigers will be playing when (if) Cabrera enters the Top 25 in career MLB dingers.



Howard Gensler is a veteran journalist covering the Michigan sports betting market for BetMichigan.com. Before his focus on U.S. sports betting, Howard worked at the Philadelphia Daily News, TV Guide and the Philadelphia Inquirer. Howard is also a founding editor of bettorsinsider.com.

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