Detroit Lions Playoff Chances: Tracking the Lions Playoffs Picture

Fact Checked by Peter Mooney

Key Takeaways:

  • The Detroit Lions made the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
  • The Lions won the NFC North for the first time since 1993.
  • Detroit lost to San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game, 34-31.

Dan Campbell at Lions Practice

The Detroit Lions snapped the longest playoff victory drought in NFL history in 2023 and came 3 points short of a trip to the Super Bowl. Now, they're looking to build on an extraordinary season in free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft, which will be hosted in Detroit.

What are the Lions Playoff Chances?

The Lions are the clear favorites in the NFC North in 2024, with +130 odds to win the division again. Coming off its first divisional crown since 1993, Detroit returns enough of its production from last season to have the second-shortest odds to win the NFC Conference (+550), according to ESPN BET Michigan, trailing behind San Francisco.

Lions Playoff ChancesTBA
Lions Miss PlayoffsTBA
🏆 Lions Win Super Bowl7.1% Chance
👑 Lions Win NFC15.4% Chance
🔥 Lions Win NFC North38.5% Chance
Data Verified by ExpertJuly 17, 2024

Betting odds indicate how likely or unlikely an outcome is to happen, we can use those odds to calculate the implied probability of the outcome in question. 

Implied probability is just one of the tools we can use to better understand the Lions playoff picture and postseason odds. Some other resources include the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), a tool used to predict each team's performance throughout the season by assigning numeric grades for each team's offensive, defensive, and special teams units. The sum of these three values is known as the FPI (the higher the number, the better the team). 

Detroit Lions Playoff Chances: Week-by-Week

The Lions playoff chances have greatly increased since the start of the 2023 season. The Lions started the season with -165 playoff odds prior to Week 1 and shortened all the way to -20000 from Weeks 11-14. The Lions playoffs odds lengthened after their bad loss in Week 15, but they still sit at -10000.

  • Entering Week 1: -165 playoff odds (62.3% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 2: -350 playoff odds (77.8% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 3: -200 playoffs odds (66.7 implied probability)
  • Entering Week 4: -225 playoff odds (69.2 implied probability)
  • Entering Week 5: -475 playoff odds (82.6% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 6: -1100 playoff odds (91.7% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 7: -6000 playoff odds (98.4% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 8: -4000 playoff odds (97.6% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 9: -10000 playoff odds (99.0% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 10: -10000 playoff odds (99.0% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 11: -20000 playoff odds (99.5% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 12: -20000 playoff odds (99.5% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 13: -20000 playoff odds (99.5% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 14: -20000 playoff odds (99.5% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 15: -10000 playoff odds (99% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 16: Greater than 99% implied probability

Be sure to bookmark this page, and check back weekly, as we'll update the Lions playoff odds after each game this season.

Detroit Lions Schedule and Betting Lines

The full NFL schedule isn't fully released until May. So, for now, take a look at who the Lions will play until we update this section with the latest 2024 Lions odds.

Home Opponents:

  • Green Bay Packers
  • Chicago Bears
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Seattle Seahawks
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Tennessee Titans
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Buffalo Bills

Away Opponents:

  • Green Bay Packers
  • Chicago Bears
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Houston Texans
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • San Francisco 49ers
  • Dallas Cowboys

The Lions finished the 2023 regular season with a 12-5 record and NFC North Champions.

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Lions Playoff Chances: Key Updates July 2024

Throughout the offseason, the Lions will make several moves through the NFL Draft and via trades, Here's a look at some of the biggest Detroit Lions' headlines so far:

  • 📆 April 25-27, 2024: Detroit hosts its first-ever NFL Draft, adding another first-round pick from Alabama in cornerback Terrion Arnold.
  • 📆 March 14, 2024: Following a historic season, the Lions announced contract extensions through 2027 for head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes.
  • 📆 March 13, 2024: Detroit trades a 2024 third-round draft pick for Tampa Bay Buccaneers standout cornerback Carlton Davis III to bolster the Lions' struggling pass defense. The deal included two sixth-round picks.
  • 📆 March 11, 2024: GM Brad Holmes started the free agency period by re-signing offensive guard, and Michigan native, Graham Glasgow to a three-year contract worth $20 million.
  • 📆 February 4, 2024: The Lions send eight different players to the NFL Pro Bowl, including both running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
  • 📆 January 28, 2024: Dan Campbell's refusal to kick field goals in the red zone ultimately keeps Detroit out of the Super Bowl, losing to the 49ers, 34-31, and blowing a 24-7 halftime lead.
  • 📆 January 21, 2024: The Lions win another playoff game at home, defeating Tampa Bay, 31-23, earning a berth in the NFC Championship Game since 1991.
  • 📆 January 14, 2024: At Ford Field, the Lions defeat the Rams, 24-23, to win their first home playoff game since 1992.
  • 📆 December 18, 2023: The Lions opened up the practice window for starting safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson who has been out since Week 3 with a torn pectoral muscle.
  • 📆 December 5, 2023: The Lions place 3rd-year breakout DT Alim McNeill on IR with knee injury and sign free agent DT Tyson Alualu to the practice squad.
  • 📆 November 21, 2023: The Lions start selling postseason tickets to season-ticket holders.
  • 📆 November 7, 2023: Starting RB David Montgomery returned to practice after missing the Lions last three games with a rib injury.

We'll continue to update you on the latest Detroit Lions news and transactions throughout the season, so bookmark this article and check back often.

Key Contributors Toward Lions Playoff Chances

Lions quarterback Jared Goff currently has the 10th-best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win 2023 NFL MVP at +10000. Goff has had some struggles over the middle part of the season, but got back on track in Week 15 with 5 passing touchdowns without an interception.

The Lions are the only team in the NFL to have 5 players with 500+ scrimmage yards & 5+ TD in 2023. (RB David Montgomery, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Josh Reynolds and TE Sam LaPorta). Gibbs currently has +2000 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023 (T-2nd-best odds among all candidates, behind only Texans' QB C.J. Stroud).

Lions head coach Dan Campbell is currently the odds favorite to win Coach of the Year in 2023 with +200 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Where Can I Bet on the Lions to Make the Playoffs?

Michigan sportsbook apps have started to eliminate playoff odds for the top teams in the NFL as they get close to clinching a playoff birth, and this includes the Detroit Lions who can clinch the playoffs in Week 16.

You can still bet on the Lions to win the Super Bowl on most major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars, as long as you are 21+ and within state lines of a state that offers legal sports betting.

Before placing your Lions wager, it's definitely worthwhile to check out the latest Michigan betting promos available to make sure you're getting the most out of your bet.

Related: Make sure to try out the new Fanatics Sportsbook Michigan when it launches in Michigan.

Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.

Every Pick the Detroit Lions Made in the 2024 NFL Draft

After hosting the NFL Draft for the first time in the city's storied history, here's a look at every pick General Manager Brad Holmes made this year.

SPOILER: It includes an Alabama player in the first round for the third consecutive year.

RoundPick NumberPlayer
124 (via DAL)CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)
261CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Missouri)
4126 (via NYJ)OT Giovanni Manu (British Columbia)
4132 (via PHI)RB/S Sione Vaki (Utah)
6189 (via HOU)DT Mekhi Wingo (LSU)
6210G Christian Mahogany (Boston College)

Yet again, Holmes & Co. didn't rest during the draft, making four different trades across three different rounds, including two in the fourth round.

Looking Ahead: Lions Playoff Picture

The Lions righted their wrongs in the 2023 season, proving to every team in the league that they're a legitimate contender right now.

Heading into the 2024 season, the narrative surrounding this once-forgotten franchise is flipped upside down. From underdogs a year ago to now having a giant target on their back, Detroit is among the five most heavily favored teams to win the Super Bowl.

Last season, making the playoffs was enough to dub the season a success. The improbable run to the NFC title game was considered an overachievement; however, this season, anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl would disappoint the fan base and coaching staff alike.

Do the Lions Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Lions made the playoffs in 2023. Now, their sights are set on repeating it and getting redemption in the NFC Championship Game after blowing a three-possession lead at halftime last season.

Are the Lions Out of Playoffs?

No, the Detroit Lions are definitely NOT out of the playoffs. And in 2024, if they somehow miss the postseason, the season would be a complete failure.

Where Do the Detroit Lions Rank in the NFC North?

The Detroit Lions won the NFC North in 2023. Heading into the 2024 season, they're the heavy favorites to do it again, with most sportsbooks having them at +145 or shorter to go back-to-back with the division.

Where Do the Detroit Lions Rank in the NFC Standings?

The Lions (12-5) are the 3 seed in the NFC. They are behind the 49ers (1) and the Cowboys (2). 

The rest of the playoff field is made up by the Eagles, Packers, Rams, and Buccaneers.

Can the Detroit Lions Get the No. 1 Seed?

No, the San Francisco 49ers are the No. 1 Seed in the NFC.

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Who to Root for if You're a Detroit Lions Fan

Lions fans will want to root for the Green Bay Packers in the NFC. If the Packers and Lions both advance, Detroit will host the NFC Championship game.

Detroit Lions Postseason Outlook and Predictions

The Lions are currently +850 to win the Super Bowl. Their odds shortened significantly after defeating the Rams and the Cowboys losing in the first round.

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han (USA Today Network)

Detroit Lions Playoffs FAQs

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