Detroit Lions Playoff Chances: Week 4

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Key Takeaways:

  • πŸ“Š  The Detroit Lions have -225 playoff odds entering Week 4, which gives them an implied probability of 69.2% to make the playoffs in the 2023 season.
  • πŸ”₯ The Lions are the current favorites to win the NFC North at -105 odds (51.2% implied probability) entering Week 4. However, the Packers (39.2%) are quickly closing the gap after a strong start to the 2023 season.
  • πŸ† The Detroit Lions Super Bowl LVIII odds are currently +2000 entering Week 4, giving them a 4.8% chance to win. Their Super Bowl odds rank tied for 7th among all NFL teams and 4th among NFC teams.

The Detroit Lions have not made the playoffs since 2016 and have not won a playoff game since losing in the 1991 NFC Championship -- 31 straight seasons without winning a playoff game is the longest active drought in the NFL. 

The Lions have had a strong start to the 2023 season. They are in first place in the NFC North and have a 2-1 record entering Week 4. The Lions have now won ten of their last 13 games played.

Dan Campbell at Lions Practice

What are the Lions Playoff Chances?

The Lions playoff chances are 69.2%, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. They stand as the current odds favorite to win the NFC North, which would earn them an automatic bid to the playoffs as a top-four seed. However, even if they do fail to win their division, they can earn one of the NFC's three available Wild Card spots.

⭐ Lions Playoff Chances69.2% Chance
❌ Lions Miss Playoffs30.8% Chance
πŸ† Lions Win Super Bowl4.8% Chance
πŸ‘‘ Lions Win NFC9.5% Chance
πŸ”₯ Lions Win NFC North51.2% Chance
πŸ—½ New York Times Postseason SimulatorNot Available Yet
🏈 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)1.2 FPI
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 29, 2023

Betting odds indicate how likely or unlikely an outcome is to happen, and we can use those odds to calculate the implied probability of the outcome in question.  In this case, the Lions odds to make the playoffs are at -225, which indicates a 69.2% probability that they'll make the postseason in 2023. Only the San Francisco 49ers (-6000), Philadelphia Eagles (-1400), and Dallas Cowboys (-400) have shorter playoff odds among NFC teams per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Implied probability is just one of the tools we can use to better understand the Lions playoff picture and postseason odds. Some other resources include the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), a tool used to predict each team's performance throughout the season by assigning numeric grades for each team's offensive, defensive, and special teams units. The sum of these three values is known as the FPI (the higher the number, the better the team). The Lions (1.2) are 1 of 11 teams to have a current FPI over 1.0 and their PFI ranks 4th highest among NFC teams after Week 4 of the 2023 season.

Detroit Lions Playoff Chances: Week-by-Week

The Lions playoff chances have fluctuated throughout the first three weeks of the 2023 season. Their playoffs odds made a huge jump after their Week 1 win against the reigning Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs, but dropped greatly after their disappointing Week 2 loss to the Seahawks, and then made a small jump up after their Week 3 win over the Falcons.

  • Entering Week 1: -165 playoff odds (62.3% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 2: -350 playoff odds (77.8% implied probability)
  • Entering Week 3: -200 playoffs odds (66.7 implied probability)
  • Entering Week 4: -225 playoff odds (69.2 implied probability)

Be sure to bookmark this page, and check back weekly, as we'll update the Lions playoff odds after each game this season.

Detroit Lions Schedule and Betting Lines

Here's a list of where the point spreads and moneylines stand for the Lions this season:

Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs (Kickoff) | Lions (1-0) - Win 21-20
Week 2 vs. Seattle Seahawks | Lions (1-1) - Lose 37-31
Week 3 vs. Atlanta Falcons | Lions (2-1) - Win 20-6 
Week 4 at Green Bay Packers (Thursday Night Football) | Lions -1, ML -115
Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers | Lions -7.5, ML -375
Week 6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Lions -3.5, ML -175
Week 7 at Baltimore Ravens | Lions +3, ML +130
Week 8 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Monday Night Football) | Lions -4.5, ML -198
Week 9 BYE | N/A
Week 10 at Los Angeles Chargers | Lions +3, ML +136
Week 11 vs. Chicago Bears | Lions -5, ML -205
Week 12 vs. Green Bay Packers (Thanksgiving) | Lions -4, ML -185
Week 13 at New Orleans Saints | Lions +1, ML -108
Week 14 at Chicago Bears | Lions -1.5, ML -120
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos | Lions -2, ML -125
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings | Lions +1, ML -105
Week 17 at Dallas Cowboys | Lions +3.5, ML +145
Week 18 vs. Minnesota Vikings | Lions -2.5, ML -135

The Lions (-1) are slight favorites in Week 4 to beat their divisional rival the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 2-1 and have been outperforming preseason expectations so far this year. The Lions have defeated the Packers in each of their last three matchups.

Lions Playoff Chances: Key Offseason Updates September 2023

Throughout the offseason, the Lions made a number of additions, both in free agency and through the draft and trades, Here's a look at some of the biggest Detroit Lions' headlines in the 2023 offseason:

  • πŸ“† September 19, 2023: The Lions place safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (torn pec) and LB James Houston (fractured ankle) on IR; both will miss a significant amount of time and are at risk of missing the remainder of the season
  • πŸ“† September 17, 2023: Starting RB David Montgomery (thigh) and guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) both suffered injuries in Week 2 that could keep them out multiple weeks.
  • πŸ“† September 5, 2023: The Lions name QB Jared Goff, OT Penei Sewell, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, LB Alex Anzalone, DE Chris Harris, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (special teams) as team captains for 2023 season.
  • πŸ“† August 11-25, 2023: The Lions went 2-1 in the 2023 preseason; Veteran starters DNP in preseason games.
  • πŸ“† August 25, 2023: The Lions defeated vs the Panthers 26-17 in their preseason finale (2nd-year OLB James Houston had 1.5 sacks)
  • πŸ“† August 19, 2023: The Lions lost vs the Jaguars 25-7 in preseason Week 2 (veteran starters did not play)
  • πŸ“† August 11, 2023: The Lions beat the Giants 21-16 in their preseason opener; 1st round LB Jack Campbell is a standout in the game
  • πŸ“† August 10, 2023: QB Teddy Bridgewater signs a 1-year contract with the Lions to act as Jared Goff's backup in 2023
  • πŸ“† July 20, 2023: The Lions trade for former 2nd-round WR Denzel Mims from the Jets
  • πŸ“† May 25, 2023: Detroit trades for kicker Riley Patterson from the Jaguars.
  • πŸ“† May 12-15: Lions hold rookie minicamp, with second-round TE Sam LaPorta as a widely reported standout.
  • πŸ“† April 27: The Lions select Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall pick) and Iowa LB Jack Campbell (No. 18) in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Other picks include TE Sam LaPorta (No. 34), CB Brian Branch (No. 45), and QB Hendon Hooker.
  • πŸ“† April 21: Several Lions players receive suspensions for violating the NFL's gaming policy. Second-year WR Jameson Williams was among the most notable Lions players suspended.
  • πŸ“† March 20: Lions sign free agent safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, formerly of the Philadelphia Eagles, to a 1-year, $6.5 million deal.
  • πŸ“† March 16: Lions sign free agent RB David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract with $11 million guaranteed.
  • πŸ“† March 13: Lions sign free agent CB Cam Sutton to a 3-year, $33 million contract, including $22.5 million guaranteed.

We'll continue to update you on the latest Detroit Lions news and transactions throughout the season, so bookmark this article and check back often.

Key Contributors Toward Lions Playoff Chances

Lions quarterback Jared Goff currently ranks 13th in MVP odds at +4500 on DraftKings sportsbook. Goff took a demonstrable leap forward in his second year under HC Dan Campbell, posting a career-high 99.3 passer rating in his 4,438 passing yards, 29 TDs, 7 INT effort. Through three weeks of the 2023 season, Goff has thrown five touchdown passes and two interceptions and has a 101.6 passer rating.

Amon Ra St. Brown's Offensive Player of the Year odds sit at +3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. His odds rank T-9th among all candidates. St. Brown is coming off a season where he posted 106 receptions for 1,161 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Through three games this season, he has recorded 275 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown and has had back-to-back weeks with 100+ receiving yards.

On the defense, the playmaker to watch is undoubtedly DE Aidan Hutchinson, fresh off a 2022 campaign where he finished second in voting to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. He finished the season with 9.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss, and three interceptions. Hutchinson has had a strong performance over the first three games of the 2023 season and recorded two sacks and a forced fumble in Week 3. Hutchinson is currently tied for the seventh shortest odds at +4000 to win Defensive Player of the Year this season, behind only Micah Parsons (+200), T.J. Watt (+380), Myles Garrett (+380), Nick Bosa (+1800), Chris Jones (+3500) and Aaron Donald (+3500).

Last but not least, we've got to consider the man at the forefront of it all β€” head coach Dan Campbell. He currently has +750 odds to win Coach of the Year, which ranks 2nd only behind Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel (+400).

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Where Can I Bet on the Lions to Make the Playoffs?

You can bet on the Detroit Lions to make the playoffs in 2023 at most major Michigan sportsbook apps, including DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, and BetMGM. Here's a look at the odds available for the Lions to make the playoffs for each of them:

πŸ₯‡ DraftKings Sportsbook-225 odds
πŸ₯ˆ FanDuel Sportsbook-210 odds
πŸ₯‰BetMGM Sportsbook-200 odds
πŸ₯‰Caesars Sportsbook-210 odds
βœ… Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 29, 2023

Note that each of the major sportsbooks is predicting the Lions to make the playoffs based on implied probability. At -200, BetMGM Sportsbook offers the best Lions playoffs odds (in terms of making the most profit) among these books.

Before placing your Lions wager, it's definitely worthwhile to check out the best Michigan sportsbook promos & bonuses available to make sure you're getting the most out of your bet.

Michigan sports betting was legalized and officially launched in the state in January 2021, with both in-person and mobile sports betting options.

Looking Ahead: Lions Playoff Picture

The Lions closed out the 2022 NFL season looking red hot, going 8-2 in the final 10 games of the season following their 1-6 start. Unfortunately, they just barely missed the playoffs. The Lions have started this season strong with a 2-1 record and oddsmakers are expecting them to make the playoffs in 2023.

The last time the Lions made the playoffs was back in 2016-17 when they lost to the Seahawks in the Wild Card Round. Their last win in the playoffs came way back in the 1991 season, meaning the Lions currently hold the longest active playoff win drought across the league β€” a title they'll certainly look to lose in the 2023s by making the playoffs (and finally winning) this postseason.

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Do the Lions Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?

Yes, the Lions still have a chance to make the playoffs. All 32 teams still remain in playoff contention as we are only three weeks through the regular season. They sit as the favorites to win the NFC North this year with -105 odds, which would earn them an automatic bid to the playoffs, over the Green Bay Packers (+155), Minnesota Vikings (+600) and Chicago Bears (+2500). However, winning the division isn't the only way to earn a playoff berth.

Since 2020, the NFL has expanded the playoffs from 6 to 7 teams in the AFC and NFC. This means that each conference will have three total Wild Card teams, instead of the previous two, providing more teams opportunities to clinch playoff berths each season.

Are the Lions Out of Playoffs?

No, the Detroit Lions aren't out of the playoffs. The Lions are 2-1 after Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season. The Lions currently have a 69.2% chance to make the playoffs in 2023 based on implied probability.


Where Do the Detroit Lions Rank in the NFC North?

The Detroit Lions are currently the odds-on favorite to win the NFC North on DraftKings Sportsbook, with odds at -105. If they do end up winning the division, it would mark the first NFC North division title in Lions franchise history. Last season, the Lions finished second in the division with a 9-8 record, behind the Vikings (13-4).

The Green Bay Packers division winner odds (+155) continue to shorten each week of the season after winning two of their three games. It seems that Jordan Love and the Packers defense are not going to make it easy for the Lions to win the NFC North this season.

Both the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears have started the season 0-3 this season. The Vikings rank third in the NFC North with +600 odds to win the division. The Bears have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL and rank last to win the NFC North title at +2500 odds.

Where Do the Detroit Lions Rank in the NFC Standings?

The Lions odds to win the NFC are sitting at +950 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which ranks fourth in the conference. However, there is a big gap between the Lions odds and the top three teams in the conference: San Francisco 49ers (+220), Philadelphia Eagles (+330) and Dallas Cowboys (+425).

Where Do the Detroit Lions Rank in the NFC Wild Card Race?

As we enter Week 4, there are only two NFC teams with a 3-0 record and eight NFC teams with a 2-1 record (including the Lions). The Lions are the favorite to win the NFC North at -105, so if their division title comes to fruition, they'd be ranked as a top-four seed rather than a Wild Card team.

Can the Detroit Lions Get the No. 1 Seed?

Yes, the Lions can get the No. 1 seed in the NFC, as can all NFC teams at this point of the season.  However, the odds are stacked against Detroit to secure the No. 1 seed, especially considering the other top-tier competitors within the NFC, namely the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys. The Lions have never finished as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

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Who to Root for if You're a Detroit Lions Fan

Detroit Lions fans will of course always want to root against their NFC North divisional rivals: the Packers, Vikings and Bears.

This year, the entire NFC North will play the entire AFC West and the entire NFC South. So, as a Lions fan, you'll generally be rooting in favor of the AFC West and NFC South teams β€” that is, except for the weeks the Lions are playing them.

Since the Lions are favored to win their division, fans will want to root against other the other three favorites to win their division in the NFC as those teams are expected to be their top competition for playoff seeding. The Eagles (NFC East), 49ers (NFC West), and Saints (NFC South) are the favorites to win the other three divisions in the conference.

Detroit Lions Postseason Outlook and Predictions

Following a strong end to the 2022 season and a 2-1 start to the 2023 season, Jared Goff and the Lions have very high expectations this year. Their current playoff -225 playoff odds imply a 69.2% chance that they'll make the postseason.

Considering their offensive prowess and the series of moves the team has made to improve their defense this offseason, it feels like a lot would have to go wrong in order for the Lions to miss the playoffs this season.

The chances for the Lions to secure a playoff spot feel brighter than they've been in some time β€” particularly their odds to clinch a top-four seed by way of a division title.

Detroit Lions Playoffs FAQs


Michelle is an editorial researcher and fantasy writer for the NFL Network. She also is a co-host for the BallBlast Fantasy Football Podcast and the Gold Diggers Podcast on the 49ers Gold Standard Network.

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