The presidential election is now less than 10 weeks away. As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump crisscross the country on their campaigns, both have their sights set on a handful of states many believe will decide the outcome of this year’s race. One of those states happens to be Michigan.
It turns out that it’s not only the candidates interested in the race. Our research found Michigan voters are significantly interested in the campaigns, too.
With both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions wrapped up, we wanted to know the breakdown of which states are most interested in Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. BetMichigan.com took a break from reviewing Michigan casino apps to come up with some numbers. Using Google Trends, we found the top seven potential swing states search interest scores for both “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump.” Then, we found which candidate Michigan metro regions are searching for. The search period was over 30 days, concluding on August 26, 2024.
Metro | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo | 72 | 82 |
Lansing | 73 | 27 |
Traverse City – Cadillac | 74 | 26 |
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City | 74 | 26 |
Marquette | 77 | 23 |
Detroit | 78 | 22 |
Alpena | 990 | 10 |
It’s not necessarily surprising to see higher search interest scores for Harris in most of the metro areas. Democratic candidates tend to fare better in larger cities, while Republicans earn higher marks in suburban and rural communities. The one exception in Michigan is the Grand Rapids area, the home of former President Gerald Ford and former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.
Wagering on elections is not permitted in the United States, so you cannot find odds on the race at any licensed Michigan sports betting app. The closest legal alternative for Americans is PredictIt, an online political futures exchange. Shares on Harris winning in November were trading at 56 cents as of Aug. 27. With shares of the winning candidate paying out at $1 each, Harris’ odds are roughly -127. Trump shares, meanwhile, were trading at 48 cents, the equivalent of +108 odds.
State | Harris Search Interest Score | Trump Search Interest Score |
Arizona | 72 | 95 |
Georgia | 69 | 81 |
Michigan | 77 | 100 |
North Carolina | 74 | 84 |
Pennsylvania | 80 | 95 |
Nevada | 67 | 89 |
Wisconsin | 75 | 87 |
Michigan has a solid history of backing the winning candidate in recent presidential elections. Since 1980, the candidate carrying the Mitten State has gone on to win the White House in 9 of 11 elections. The two exceptions were 2000 and 2004, when voters went for Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively.
Democrats have tended to perform well in the state, as Michigan has gone blue in seven of the past eight elections. The lone exception was 2016, when Trump edged Hillary Clinton 47.5% to 47.3%. Four years ago, Trump lost to current President Joe Biden 50.6% to 47.8% in the state where Michigan online casinos are legal and regulated.
Whoever wins Michigan this year will earn 15 electoral college votes. That’s one fewer than the state awarded in 2020. Despite the drop, Michigan is likely to be a state that will help decide the outcome of the 2024 election. According to recent polling data aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.com, Harris leads Trump by three percentage points (46.7% to 43.7%).
Author
Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.
Cited by leading media organizations, such as:
