The NFL season is still a few months away but it’s never too early to get an edge on wagering strategy at Michigan betting sites. Football fans love to bet the over/under and many of those placing wagers will take into account the defensive and offensive efficiencies, injuries, and the weather.
But how many bettors consider the stadium?
BetMichigan.com looked at NFL games over the past 10 years and determined that the stadium most likely to hit the over was Detroit’s own Ford Field, at a touch over 59% – a winning percentage that alone would be profitable.
There are already all kinds of odds up for the 2023 NFL season and, though it’s too early to tell how often betting over the total will be profitable this coming season, the Lions are drawing interest. Detroit is the division favorite with oddsmakers; for instance, Caesars Sportsbook Michigan lists the Lions at +120 odds to win the NFC North.
Why Ford Field Rewards Over Bettors
One of the reasons for the high percentage of over bets paying off at Ford Field in the past decade is that, for a number of these years, Detroit’s defense was terrible, ranking in the bottom six in points allowed over the past four years. Only for one season in the past 10 years were the Lions ranked in the top 10 in that category.
Last year and in 2017, the Lions were Top 10 in points scored. It’s not illogical to think that teams which give up a lot of points and score a lot of points are more likely to go over more than under and teams usually score more at home. And the dome negates cold winters.
Add it all up and Ford Field has rewarded over bettors at Michigan sportsbook apps more often than any other in recent years.
Best NFL Stadiums for Over Bettors Since 2013
Where Else Do Overs Hit Most Often?
BetMichigan.com – your home for the best Michigan sportsbook promos – looked back at all NFL over/under results from the past 10 seasons. We used data from SportsOddsHistory.com to see which current stadiums have hit the most overs. This data includes all regular-season and playoff games, including Super Bowls, played at the given stadium.
We instituted a five-year minimum in the research, so Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles were excluded from the list.
You can also find the latest odds for the Lions playoff chances here at BetMichigan.
Second on our list is Caesars New Orleans Superdome. In eight of the past 10 seasons, the Saints had a Top 10 scoring offense. In 2015 they had the worst scoring defense in the league and in 2016 they had the second worst defense to go with the second-best offense. That’s a recipe for overs. But as they say in the stock market, past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Over the past few years, the Saints offense has struggled, and they’ve lived off their D. That is not a recipe for overs. Still, the Saints are the NFC South betting favorite entering the 2023 season, with odds of +130 at BetMGM Michigan Sportsbook to win the division.
AT&T Stadium, the House that Jerry Built, has been home to a very inconsistent Dallas Cowboys team, making it No. 3 on the overs list. Some years, the Cowboys have had a great offense (No. 1 in 2021, scoring a massive 530 points). But in 2015, their offense was second worst in the NFL. In 2016, their defense was fifth best, but in 2020 their defense was fifth worst.
In fourth place is Nissan Stadium, home of the Tennessee Titans. I think of the Titans occasionally having tough defenses under Coach Jeff Fisher, and then I remember Fisher hasn’t been there since 2010. Hard to see how the Titans finished this high as they’re generally mid-pack in points scored and mid-pack in points allowed. They did pile up the points in 2020, finishing fourth, but last year they were fifth worst, scoring only 298 points.
New Era Stadium in Buffalo is another surprise as you think of bad weather with the Bills and bad weather usually doesn’t translate to a lot of scoring. But Josh Allen does, and he’s a big part of Buffalo’s status as the third-best favorite to win the 2024 Super Bowl – the Bills are +900 at DraftKings Michigan, trailing only last year’s Super Bowl participants, the Chiefs (+600) and Eagles (+650).
In the last three seasons, the Bills have been either second or third in points scored. That’s good for those wagering on the over because their defense has not allowed much scoring, finishing in the top two in three of the past four years. The Bills poured it on at home last year, going for 30 or more points in seven games.
Once you get past the Lions, however, betting the over at Ford Field is little more than a 50/50 proposition, because oddsmakers are geniuses.
Follow us for Lions Super Bowl odds as they evolve over the course of the 2023 NFL season.