Is Michigan A Swing State For 2024 Presidential Election?

There aren’t many states in America that have served as a better election bellwether gauge than Michigan over the years, with the Great Lakes State siding with the eventual winner 66.7% of the time this century. Since 2004, the Democratic Party has dominated the state’s electoral college votes, winning in four of the last five elections, with Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 being the outlier overall.  

In 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the state’s 16 electoral votes with 50.6% of the vote, to Trump’s 47.8% total, four years after the Republican captured Michigan by .3% (47.3%-to-47.0%) over Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton.  

In the three previous election cycles, the Democrats won Michigan by commanding margins, with Barack Obama scoring 57.4% (2008) and 54.2% (2012) of the vote, while John Kerry garnered 51.2% of the state’s votes in 2004.  

This November, it seems like whichever candidate represents the GOP on the ballot (likely Trump) will have the upper hand over the incumbent from the Democratic Party, with three national polling firms giving Republicans an edge over their Democratic rivals.  

Ahead of Michigan’s party primaries, - your source for Michigan sports betting - broke down the Great Lakes State’s swing state credentials to gauge whether Biden or Trump can take home the state’s 15 electoral votes this fall. 

Is Michigan A Red Or Blue State in 2024?

Utilizing the average results of 3 current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, developed the following odds of how Michigan will vote in 2024. The 3 polls were “Franklin & Marshall,” “Bloomberg / Morning Consult” and “Susquehanna Polling.”  

Party Odds Pct. Chance
Democrat (Blue) +11047.6%
Republican (Red) -110 52.3%

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Recent Michigan Voting In Presidential Elections

Election YearDemocratic Candidate Republican Candidate
2020 Joe Biden (50.6%) Donald Trump (47.8%)
2016 Hillary Clinton (47%) Donald Trump (47.3%)
2012Barack Obama (54.2%) Mitt Romney (44.7%)
2008 Barack Obama (57.4%) John McCain (41.0%)
2004 John Kerry (51.2%) George W. Bush (47.8%)

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Can Democrats Repeat In 2024?

Biden’s climb to reelection will likely run through Michigan, with the octogenarian incumbent looking to bolster his 50.6% showing from four years ago, which was the second-lowest total by a Democrat since 2004, ahead of Clinton’s 47.0% run in 2016.  

The three polls that used to determine our presidential election odds in Michigan currently give Biden and the Democrats +110 odds of repeating in Michigan come November, to -110 for the GOP.

Luckily for the Democrats, there’s still more than eight months until the election actually happens, which gives them plenty of time to reestablish the electoral pipeline that helped the state carry the party’s presidential candidates to victory six straight times between 1992 and 2012, before Trump broke through in 2016.

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Christopher Boan

Christopher Boan is a staff writer for He has covered sports and sports betting for more than seven years and has worked for publications such as, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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