Michigan State 2024 Win Total: Trends of 4.5 Win Total Teams

Michigan State 2024 Win Total: Trends of 4.5 Win Total Teams
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

It’s a new day in East Lansing. The Michigan State Spartans are moving on from the turmoil that ultimately ended the Mel Tucker era, as the football program is now under the watchful eye of former Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith.

Oddsmakers are in wait-and-see mode with the Spartans. 

BetMichigan.com checked FanDuel Sportsbook Michigan for current win totals (over/under props) for teams in the 2024 college football season. The operator set Michigan State’s win total at 4.5 wins (-154 over) so we sought trends for teams with that exact preseason win total since 2021:

Season Performance Of 4.5 Win Total Teams


Number of Teams 


Under 4.5 Wins

18 of 31


Over 4.5 Wins

13 of 31


*Rounded to the nearest number

BetMichigan.com looked on SportsReference.com to find all teams with a 4.5-win total line in the past three seasons and how they performed. Their average win total was almost exactly as the bookmakers projected: Those teams 4.58 wins per team since 2021.

You can find a wide variety of futures bets and even lines on certain games this fall at various Michigan betting sites.

More About Jonathan Smith

Smith came to East Lansing this offseason from Corvallis, Oregon, leaving the Beavers after leading the program to a 34-35 record between 2018 and 2023. Oregon State was on an upward trend, going 18-7 over Smith’s last two seasons in the Northwest.

Now, the longtime college coach ascends to the expanded Big Ten with an eye on getting Sparty back to respectability in 2024. MSU is fresh off a two-year period when it went a combined 9-15, including a 5-13 mark in conference play during that stretch.

Michigan State has +10000 odds of winning the Big Ten this season at Caesars Michigan Sportsbook on the futures market.

Can Michigan State Clear Preseason Figure?

Of the 31 teams that entered the CFB season with a win total over/under of 4.5 in the past three years, 18 of them (58.1%) wound up clearing that total. The 31 teams averaging 4.58 wins in total.

Hitting five or more wins in 2024 should be attainable for the Spartans. The program has won that many games in 19 of the past 24 full seasons (excluding 2020’s shortened COVID-19 campaign).

For 2024 and beyond, the Big Ten added former Pac-12 teams UCLA, Southern California, Washington and Smith’s former state rival, Oregon. At BetMGM Sportsbook Michigan, Ohio State (+375 odds) and Oregon (+1000) are among the national title favorites, with Georgia (+325) at the top. Michigan State has +30000 odds.

Michigan State 2024 Football Schedule

Smith and his staff will have a chance to build momentum in the non-conference portion of the schedule. MSU opens Aug. 31 against Florida Atlantic and hosts HBCU stalwart Prairie View A&M on Sept. 14. The Spartans have a Power Five road game at Boston College on Sept. 21 but Michigan sportsbook apps should have Sparty installed as big favorites in the other two.

Michigan State’s first Big Ten game is in the midst of that early out-of-conference slate, on Sept. 7 at Maryland. The Spartans also travel for B1G games at Oregon (Oct. 5), Michigan (Oct. 26) and Illinois (Nov. 16).

Spartans Stadium will host five Big Ten foes: Ohio State (Sept. 28), Iowa (Oct. 19), Indiana (Nov. 2), Purdue (Nov. 23) and Rutgers (Nov. 30). Folks using the best Michigan sports betting promos at BetMichigan.com to sign up can get in on the college football wagering action months before the season starts.

Luckily for Michigan State, the program hired a head coach in Smith that’s no stranger to rebuilding programs. The 2022 Pac-12 Coach of the Year took Oregon State from the depths of seven straight losing seasons between 2014 and 2020 to the heights of a three-year stretch that few will forget. From 2021 to 2023, Smith led the Beavers to a 25-14 record and three bowl games as the coach of his alma mater.

For more tips from BetMichigan.com about how and where to place your wagers, check out our Michigan State football betting guide page.

USA Today Network photo by Nick King/Lansing State Journal



Christopher Boan is a staff writer for BetMichigan.com. He has covered sports and sports betting for more than seven years and has worked for publications such as ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.

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